Talking Reds (+150)
Mace Windu (-230)
Over 4.5 Goals (-120)
Under 4.5 Goals (-120)
Notes: Although I’m sure everyone’s pretty pumped to get out there and play, especially on an evening that is supposed to be an absolutely beautiful 62 degrees at puck drop, I regret to inform you that this is likely to be one of the most boring D5 games of all time. Not in terms of the importance it holds in standings or the skill of the teams who are both near the top of the standings, but because red is on a ridiculous defensive pace and purple isn’t far behind, forcing me to install an absurd 4.5 over/under that is normally reserved only for championship games. In fact, if we venture outside of D5 lines, in over a decade of betting on NHL games the only 4.5 goal over/under I’ve ever seen was in the 2015 Eastern Conference semifinals when Rangers/Caps was featuring a goalie duel for the ages between Henrik Lundqvist and Braden Holtby and every game after game 2 was set at this number. Here were the scores of all the games that series: 2-1, 3-2, 1-0, 2-1, 2-1, 4-3 and 2-1. That adds up to 25 goals in 7 games, or 3.57 goals scored per game. If you remove the outlier 4-3 game, which is crazy to even call an outlier as that’s a very standard hockey score, the other six games averaged exactly 3 goals per game. All that to say, this is the rarified territory we are in this season for any type of hockey game as this game will feature a team giving up 1.33 goals per game against a team that hasn’t given one up yet this season. Not coincidentally, these teams feature two of the not just best but also biggest goalies in league history as Campbell and AJ’s positioning and equipment make them take up so much net it’s like a total eclipse of the heart out there. Purple has certainly looked more overpowering three games into the season, but red has yet to give up a single goal and Campbell is on a legit heater. Mace must be installed as the favorite but tread lightly in this one folks – this reeks of a classic stay-away game. If we offered alt-lines, an under 3.5 goals at ~ +170 would look mighty enticing, which is exactly why I’m not offering it.
Pizza Rats (+1.5 Goals) (-120)
The Grassholes (-1.5 Goals) (-120)
Over 5.5 Goals (EVEN)
Under 5.5 Goals (-145)
Notes: This is a sneaky big game for both teams and might be a colorblind ref’s nightmare (thankfully choochoo has moved to Florida and won’t be working this one). Green is a respectable 1-1 but has championship aspirations and needs to get going quickly, especially with a tough upcoming schedule, if they’re going to avoid having to win like 5 playoff games. Meanwhile Pizza Rats have been the exact opposite of what you’d expect to see from a Hicks team; absolutely stellar defense, but zero goals scored in two games. I have a strong feeling that changes tonight as Hicks will be charged up with a day of great weather and probably some pregame PEDs and Amit makes his return to the lineup. I’m 100% confident Pizza Rats score goals tonight; actually winning the game is a much tougher task. It’s tracking to be much closer than public perception would indicate and sharp money is coming in on teal. I’m taking the points.
BONUS LINES
More Points In This Game
Hicks (-105)
Stern (-135)
More Points In This Game
Satok (EVEN)
Andrew (-145)
Pizza Rats (+2.0 Goals) (EVEN)
Team Pie Pie (-2.0 Goals) (-145)
Over 6.0 Goals (-120)
Under 6.0 Goals (-120)
Notes: Orange has been on a bit of a heater to start the season and came in at #1 in the most recent edition of the Power Rankings. Of course, the most recent win was against a Cup Size team that has lost every game by 3-5 goals so it’s tough to glean too much from that one, but they’ve undoubtedly looked mighty impressive in winning their first three games with unmatched depth up and down the lineup. Tonight they’ll be taking on a Pizza Rats team that will be on the second half of a back-to-back, but hungry for wins. Rats are generally more hungry than cats, but not in the case of Pie Pie who was probably one of the fattest cats who ever lived. I still think the public is really underestimating teal as they are closer to red than they are to black. But beating a red hot orange team in their second game of the night is a tall task. I’m taking the over, even with Jeff Green’s recent heroics, but the spread is too close to call for me.
BONUS LINES
More Points In This Game
Hicks + Satok + All Teal Women (-110)
Jo Robin + Matt Bramson (-130)
The MilkMob (+2.0 Goals) (-130)
The Grassholes (-2.0 Goals) (-110)
Over 6.5 Goals (-120)
Under 6.5 Goals (-120)
Notes: This is an extremely tricky game to handicap. The MilkMob is America’s team and has had more games than anyone thus far to build chemistry, but lost two of their last three games by a combined score of 9-1. Meanwhile green is the toughest team to handicap so far this season and it’s anyone’s guess what they’ll look like tonight against a fast and hungry white team with elite goaltending. I’ve been told that Annie was approved to sub for green in both games and she will definitely help the cause but green has been uncharacteristically sloppy with giveaways and possession the first two games and will need to shore that up against a fast and hungry Milk squad. Sonj vs Zisser is always a fun goalie battle to watch but the game itself should be fairly wide open, giving both teams ample chances. I don’t know how confident I am in it, but I”m taking MilkMob to cover in this one. Fusco, don’t let me down.
BONUS LINES
More Points In This Game
Milkman + Jordan (-110)
Stern + Andrew (-130)
The Blue Streakers (-1.5 Goals) (-225)
Silver Stallions (+1.5 Goals) (+150)
Over 6.5 Goals (-115)
Under 6.5 Goals (-125)
Notes: The final game of the night sees a shorthanded blue team take on a Stallions team that I think will be mostly at full strength. Silver’s played three games so far with an impressive comeback win over Beatin’ Meat sandwiched between losses to Mace and the MilkMob. Blue beat the MilkMob 4-1 before losing 3-2 to green despite an insane late flurry. Jack and Chad combined for five goals and they’ll need to do more of the same if they’re going to pick up the W in this week’s west coast game. Silver could certainly take this game with the right lineup and a few bounces but I have zero doubt that league bettors will be hammering blue, even with a few notable absences. I do think the Streakers are likely to win but as far as the spread goes, you’re on your own. Every game silver has played this season, win or lose, has been decided by one goal so taking them to lose by two or more is somewhat dicey unless you have inside info that James or Ken are out of the lineup. I do not so I will most likely be taking blue and the over, particularly with Cardello making his season debut tonight and completely jacked to the tits if I know anything about him. See ya tonight.
BONUS LINES
More Points In This Game
Jack + Chad (-145)
James Pereira + Ken (EVEN)
More Points In This Game
Alex (-130)
Mike Pigozzi (-110)