Regular Season Finale Betting Lines (Summer/Fall 2021)

Green Street Hooligans (-110)
The Goaldiggers (-130)
Over 7.5 (-120)
Under 7.5 (-120)

Notes: The first of multiple borderline playoff games tonight features the Goaldiggers and Hooligans in a rematch of what a surprisingly testy game just a month ago. Guido & Tarnow were mid-season adds to the Probert-led Varsity Warriors that won the championship in the inaugural Summer 2018 season but last season they fought it out for 5th and tonight they fight it out for top seeding. Green can climb as high as 3rd with two victories but can’t pass white due to the regulation wins tiebreaker. With a victory in regulation the Goaldiggers will clinch the double-bye directly into the final four; they can still get 1st if Barrel lose in regulation to the Hippos but can also slip down to 3rd. They should have everyone except Sam and Brett tonight with Casca looking to secure his first career GAA title. When he missed last week’s games there were many who believed he was doing so simply to preserve his sterling record. Casc-Anon loyalists were shouting from the rooftops when he returned on Friday night and looked great in giving up only four goals in two games. Tarnow & Guido clearly made some sort of agreement before the season that one would only pass and one would only shoot this season as Tarnow is currently #1 in assists with 16 while Guido is looking for the Jack/Mike T award for shots on goal in a season and has an astounding 26 goals in 13 games. Probie and Austin are one of the few 1-2 punches that can hang with them but injuries and absences have derailed green’s President’s Trophy hopes. I’m expecting a playoff style game but one which counterintuitively hits the over as both teams fire over 30 shots while Jack nods approvingly.

My Cup Size Is Stanley (-130)
Orange Royals (-110)

Over 7.0 (-135)
Under 7.0 (-105)

Notes: The Royals will be missing Cherie, Malik and possibly Adam, Otis and Captain Russo for this one. Jenn is busy dealing with scandals (non-ringer edition) so I have no idea who’s in or out. I would guess Cro is out because he’s played like one game all year and Ryann is probably busy crying that Malik won’t be there tonight. If Cup Size wins this game in regulation and then the Royals lose to the Ducks and Hippos lose to Barrel they will improbably jump all the way up to 5th place. If the Royals win both of their games and the Hooligans lose both of theirs Orange can climb all the way up to 4th and a bye through the first round of the playoffs. I think they’re the better team overall but the absences tonight will be too much. Max puts in a vintage performance and Cup Size wins a good clean hockey game. Hopefully we can get a few more double cellys on accidental goals too.

The Sexy Ducks (-135)
Green Street Hooligans (-105)
Over 7.5 (-130)
Under 7.5 (-110)

Notes: The Hooligans wrap up their season with a rematch of a surprisingly testy affair the last time these teams played October 19. Green picked up a win in that one due largely to the heroics of Corey in goal who must have stopped over 40 shots and confirmed why he was taken ahead of both Probert and AK in the draft (Jess loves that comment I’m sure). The Ducks won’t have Ariel and McCauley as per usual but can still get 1st place with two victories in regulation tonight. They’ll need either the Barrel to lose in regulation or the Goaldiggers to not pick up the full three points in their game tonight but they can climb as high as 1st or finish as low as 4th. Some interesting subplots to watch: depending on how many points Guido scores, Sam could take the lead for the scoring title race and become the first rookie to win it since Jeff in Fall 2018 (and technically Probert in Summer 2018 although we were all rookies that season). Sam also has an outside shot at the assists crown while Meg needs a few points to cap off an incredible run to the ladies’ scoring title as she’s in 1st despite only playing 7 games. Waldman could possibly win the goalie crown if Casca gives up 4 goals and he gets a shutout or two tonight. And perhaps most importantly, the prop bet race between Hooligans standings points and Probert+AK goals from the preseason lines and this week’s update currently sits at 23-21. I still think goals will make a comeback and win this one, even if it’s a weird thing to bet on correlation-wise. Degeneracy aside, this is a potential championship preview and both Corey and Waldman will be pumped for this one. That said, I’m still taking the over because despite playing defense I have bet maybe two unders in my entire life. It’s just no way to live.

Orange Royals (+110)
The Sexy Ducks (-150)
Over 7.5 (-125)
Under 7.5 (-115)

Notes: Playoff implications have already been discussed, as have orange’s absences. Sena might be subbing for orange but TBD based on her schedule and sobriety level. She was at the Ranger game with Kev last night and he did not seem to be having a good time at all (that has nothing to do with this preview but I thought everyone should know). This game, in fact, is not that different from last night’s Rangers/Panthers game in terms of implied probability with the jersey colors working opposite ways: the blue team fighting for top seeding like the Panthers while orange’s lineup isn’t as strong, like last night’s Rangers. To win they’ll need Zisser to play the role of Shesty as he has multiple times this season. That said Spencer Knight did not look great last night while Waldman has been playing his best hockey of the season the past few weeks. Standard bias disclaimer applies but even though neither Ellie nor Coach Eric will be in the lineup this time around, bet on blue to sweep the season series and put the pressure on Barrel.
UPDATE: Sena out for this one, female sub TBD. Illicit substances, you win this round.

The Barrel (-135)
Hungry Hippos (-105)
Over 7.5 (-135)
Under 7.5 (-105)

Last year Jack and Hicks implored me to make their three game season series one giant game with the winner on aggregate scoring receiving all nine standings points at once in a process named something I won’t type here because someone will undoubtedly try to cancel the league, . This was also the season where every captain was ready to have a battle royale for the opportunity to play Jack’s team as many times as possible until they rode some early season chemistry and the gift of Corey Blay en route to a 1st place finish. This game caps off their season as they weirdly play their first game since October 22. In the interim, 15 league games were played without them. The Hippos will be highly motivated for this one for three reasons: first, because a victory here might be enough (depending on how earlier games go) to throw them into the 5 seed and a first round matchup with the Hyenas who they match up better with than the Royals who beat them in both games this season. Second, because Hicks does not want to lose to Jack: it is truly a pain that never goes away. And related to that point but third, purple winning consecutive President’s Trophies is going to cause a lot of soul searching among the captains in this league. It’s tough to know what to make of Barrel as they haven’t played in a while and also have lost Annie for the season and won’t have Abby for this one. Taking this Hippos is extremely tempting as they’ve been playing their best hockey of the season and have finally found a full-time goalie to man the net (and one who looks absolutely huge in net) but Barrel has basically been in 1st all season, wire to wire, and I have trouble seeing them dropping to 3rd place which they incredibly would if things fall right. Abby sub TBD but I see Derek scoring at least 3 points en route to a season closing win for purple.

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