Playoff Scenarios & Percentages (Spring 2021)

Playoff Scenarios
The D5 stats department has attempted to calculate the odds of each possible playoff permutation for the season (thank you to Captain Meatbox for preliminary legwork on scenarios and inspiring this mathematical odyssey).  The methodology was simple enough; I went through the remaining minigame matchups and handicapped each one, then used a brute force computation method to compile the scenarios and odds of each. They are bound by the constraints of my own limits as an amateur rec hockey handicapper but should give a general idea of what the standings will look like. You will see the odds of each team finishing in each position along with what scenarios have to play out for them to get there.  For simplicity I did not include scenarios where someone would have to outscore someone else by 8 goals or more as that is nearly impossible in a minigame setting. Regular season will conclude either Monday or Tuesday evening and playoffs will (hopefully) start Tuesday.

Spicy Tuna Rolls

(1st in standings, no games remaining)
1st Place – 100% (regular season titled clinched)

Comments: Congrats to Jack who proves literally every post-draft prognisticator wrong, albeit with major assists from Corey, current scoring leader Mike T and of course, the undeniable magic of ladies night.

Crimson Wave

(2nd in standings, no games remaining)
2nd Place – 45.15% (hold onto second as long as Sex Panthers do not beat Cup Size in regulation and as long as Cup Size does not accrue eight points in their final three games)
3rd Place – 54.85% – (drop to 3rd if either of those scenarios take place)

Comments: An incredible late season surge lands this team a guaranteed top 3 seed. Meg sets the record for ladies points in a season, SBJ lives up to the 2nd round billing and Zisser is the current favorite for the GAA award (albeit also getting a major assist from Corey by way of Corey missing the final two games and not hitting five). Boy are they going to miss Meg on championship week (assuming they make it…but they probably will).

Sex Panthers

(3rd in standings, one game remaining)
2nd Place – 42.5% (rises to 2nd with regulation win over Cup Size)
3rd Place – 21.38% (stay in 3rd as long as neither of the below scenarios unfold)
4th Place – 36.12% (fall to 4th if Cup Size outpoints them by five or more on the final night of the regular season or if or if Cup Size beats them in regulation and the Hippos beat Cup Size twice in regulation)

Comments: Commissioner Bowl (and the weather gods) will determine their playoff fate but the Hicks’ meme really said it all. Also if Austin doesn’t score at least one goal in the finale James will never let me hear the end of it.

Green Street Hooligans

(4th in standings, no games remaining)
4th Place – 24.65% (stay in 4th as long as Cup Size does not accrue at least four points in their final three games AND as long as the Hippos do not beat Cup Size twice in regulation)
5th Place – 75.35% (fall to 5th with either of the above scenarios)

Comments: Tremendous effort by this team to turn what was looking like a lost season into a comfortable spot as the 4 or 5 seed. Probert ties his own (and Jeff & Hicks’) record for goals in the season and still has not registered an assist since September of 2019.

The Goaldiggers

(5th in standings, no games remaining)
5th Place – 0.2% (stay in 5th only if the Panthers beat Cup Size in regulation and Cup Size loses both games against the Hippos in overtime/shootout)
6th Place – 75.8% (drops to 6th if neither of the above or below insane scenarios do not play out)
7th Place – 24% (drops to 7th if Cup Size notches at least three points in their final three games while the Hippos simultaneously pick up either five points or four points with a regulation win in their final two)

Comments: Some bad luck this season but a top three of Guido/Tarnow/Danilo is as good as any in the league. Pretty much locked into the 6/7 matchup where they will likely be the favorite.

My Cup Size Is Stanley

(6th in standings, three games remaining)
2nd Place – 12.35%
3rd Place – 17.24%
4th Place – 31.55%
5th Place – 14.98%
6th Place – 8.88%
7th Place – 15%

Comments: I could not possibly write out all the insane permutations of this one but needless to say it was annoying to sort out. This was the sportsbook’s preseason favorite and they can finish anywhere in the standings except 1st. If Neil plays he needs just two points in his final three games (albeit mini-games) to clinch the scoring title, barring an furious rally by one of the Josis.

Hungry Hippos

(7th in standings, two games remaining)
3rd Place – 6.53% (rises all the way up to 3rd with two regulation wins over Cup Size and a Cup Size regulation win over the Sex Panthers)
4th Place – 7.68% (rises to 4th with two regulation wins over Cup Size and the Sex Panthers beating Cup Size in any way)
5th Place – 9.47%
6th Place – 15.32%
7th Place – 61%

Comments: Parity is at all-time highs as the last place team can still climb as high as 3rd on the final day of the season. Friedman’s shootout winner has brought this team new life heading into the home stretch but losing Shelly for the first night of playoffs is brutal. Defense will really need to bring it to overcome the loss of their first round pick. Dave GDR is the league’s all time winningest playoff goalie and has never lost in his first game of any playoff run.

Concise Standings Scenarios:

1st – Spicy Tuna Rolls (100%)
2nd – Crimson Wave (45.15%), Sex Panthers (42.5%) or My Cup Size Is Stanley (12.35%)
3rd – Crimson Wave (54.85%), Sex Panthers (21.38%), My Cup Size Is Stanley (17.24%) or Hungry Hippos (6.53%)
4th – Sex Panthers (36.12%), My Cup Size Is Stanley (31.55%), Green Street Hooligans (24.65%) or Hungry Hippos (7.68%)
5th – Green Street Hooligans (75.35%), My Cup Size Is Stanley (14.98%), Hungry Hippos (9.47%) or The Goaldiggers (0.2%)
6th – The Goaldiggers (75.8%), Hungry Hippos (15.32%) or My Cup Size Is Stanley (8.88%)
7th – Hungry Hippos (61%), The Goaldiggers (24%) or My Cup Size Is Stanley (15%)

Good luck to everyone in the playoffs and don’t forget to fill out our annual playoff challenge which is even tougher than usual with the bracket not fully set. Free to enter; winner gets half off next season’s dues. Entry window will close once the final slate of regular season games begins on either Monday or Tuesday evening.

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