Playoff Scenarios
The D5 stats department has attempted to calculate the odds of each possible playoff permutation for the season for your viewing/gambling enjoyment. The methodology was simple enough; I went through the remaining matchups and handicapped each one, then used a brute force computation method for compiling scenarios and odds of each. They are bound by the constraints of my own limits as an amateur rec hockey handicapper but should give a general idea of what the standings will look like by Friday night. For simplicity’s sake I did not include scenarios where someone would have to outscore someone else by 8 goals or more as that is somewhat tough to rely on. Standings will become official around 9:00 Friday and playoffs will kick off Tuesday 4/2 at 6:00.
Red Eyed Peas
(1st in standings, no games remaining)
1st Place – 100% (regular season titled clinched)
Comments: A banner season for red as Cara/Cherie dominate while Jacob picks up his first career top goalie award. It’s the most wide open field in years but make no mistake, they earned this #1 seed.
Bluebies
(2nd in standings, no games remaining)
3rd Place – 92.5% (anything happens except pink beating yellow in OT/SO)
4th Place – 7.5% (fall to 4th if and only if pink beats yellow in OT/SO)
Comments: Blue has arguably had the worst post restart attendance of any team but assuming pink doesn’t specifically beat yellow in OT/SO, they’ll end up in 3rd playing the winner of the 6/7 game and a nightmare matchup at full strength.
Big Deke Energy
(3rd in standings, one game remaining)
2nd Place – 57.5% (move to 2nd with a point of any kind in reg season finale)
4th Place – 42.5% (will drop to 4th if they cannot attain a point)
Comments: A quality season by yellow as they finish the season on a roll, but this franchise also hasn’t won a playoff game since 2022. Is this their year? Considering they’ll never get Pelletier in the 6th again, it just might be.
Shooting Blancs
(4th in standings, no games remaining)
4th Place – 50% (remain in 4th if pink loses to yellow)
5th Place – 50% (fall to 5th if pink beats yellow)
Comments: Blancs somehow end up in the middle of the pack despite obviously being one of the top teams. Attendance is a concern but when all their players show up, Simon/Satok/McGuire/Storer is one of the best foursomes in league history. And of course, the Jackuum in net is as good as it gets (according to the Jackuum).
On Tuesdays We Wear Pink
(5th in standings, one game remaining)
2nd Place – 42.5% (will take 2nd place with a regulation win only)
3rd Place – 7.5% (an OT/SO win will move them into 3rd)
5th Place – 35% (would stay in 5th if they lose the final and don’t get outpointed by three points by gold)
6th Place – 15% (would drop to 6th if they lose the final and get outpointed by gold by three points)
Comments: I got a lot of raised eyebrows when I ranked pink 2nd in the preseason props. Even though they’ve flown under the radar all season, with a regulation win on Friday they will indeed finish in 2nd place. Jeff Green and Hilary give them a high floor on defense while Kolenberg’s enjoyed the best offensive season of his career. I remain bullish.
Jewish Golden Calfs
(6th in standings, one game remaining)
5th Place – 15% (can rise to 5th if they win in regulation and pink loses to yellow)
6th Place – 85% (otherwise, 6th it is)
Comments: A solid possession team that’s been done in by attendance woes and Jake’s Red Sox job starting back up. Malik gives them a formidable replacement but he and Tash have only played one game together since the restart. Still, I wouldn’t want to face them in the playoffs (unless they put Yehuda on D).
Merry Pranksters
(7th in standings, one game remaining)
7th Place – 100%
Comments: The only team to have as much lineup trouble as blue since the restart, they are locked into 7th and will probably face the Golden Calfs with an outside chance of facing pink. They’ll be the underdogs for either matchup but with a top four featuring Gelman, Fitz, Joel and Danilo, plus Andreas jumping in for McCauley and a revitalized Cam in net, no one would be surprised to see them win a playoff game or two.
96th Street Bastards
(8th in standings, no games remaining)
8th Place – 100%
Comments: People were worried about a rejuvenated post-trade black but surprisingly they haven’t won a game since the restart. Quite honestly I’m not quite sure how they ended up in 8th as they have no discernable weaknesses (well, besides being the slowest team in the league). But they also might be the deepest and if Hicks and Zisser cut out their daily Taco Bell habits and get hot on the rink rather than in the bathroom, watch out.
Bada Bing
(9th in standings, no games remaining)
9th Place – 100%
Comments: A tough season for purple but they also were the only team who lost huge pieces during the sabbatical and didn’t get replacement players during the season. They’ll have them for the playoffs along with the newly acquired Milkman and a ragtag crew that Jack probably doesn’t even remember drafting as he was in Italy facing a magnum of wine post-dinner at the time. No one will be betting on them but that opening playoff game against trade partner black is going to be must-see television and considering this franchise has won 2 of the last 3 cups, I certainly won’t be betting against them
Concise Standings Scenarios:
1st – Red Eyed Peas (100%)
2nd – Big Deke Energy (57.5%) or On Tuesdays We Wear Pink (42.5%)
3rd – Bluebies (92.5%) or On Tuesdays We Wear Pink (7.5%)
4th – Shooting Blancs (50%), Big Deke Energy (42.5%) or Bluebies (7.5%)
5th – Shooting Blancs (50%), On Tuesdays We Wear Pink (35%) or Jewish Golden Calfs (15%)
6th – Jewish Golden Calfs (85%) or On Tuesdays We Wear Pink (15%)
7th – Merry Pranksters (100%)
8th – 96th Street Bastards (100%)
9th – Bada Bing (100%)
Good luck to everyone in the playoffs. Playoff bracket contest will be released Friday night as soon as matchups are finalized on the schedule.