Week 5 Betting Lines (Summer 2019)

The Charging Cheetahs
Cleveland Monsters (-130)
Over 6.0 (-120)
Under 6.0 (-120)

Notes: No major injuries to report so this is a pretty straightforward matchup between two teams who have a win and two losses. Both have asterisks; the Cheetahs lost one of those games in OT, while the Monsters are up 4-2 going into the 3rd period on the CONDO’S, giving them a win expectancy of about 90% according to the Poisson Probability Model (page 30 if you want to nerd out with Hogg and I) but probably closer to 75% considering we’re not pros (yet). The Cheetahs are one of the fastest teams in the league and will look to employ the same strategy the Puffins used to frustrate the Monsters in week 3, using their quickness to backcheck and disrupt the Monsters’ skill game. It’s a close match but Zisser’s going to Colombia in a few days meaning this could be his last D5 game ever. Bet on purple.

Stud Puffins (-120)
Over 5.5 (-115)
Under 5.5 (-125)

Notes: Sweet Baby James is out for this one, and in his place is elite athlete and penalty shot expert Jake Chaplin. The Puffins will also be without Marcella for this one, meaning two of their most tenacious forecheckers are on the sidelines. They’ll have to play a more patient game than usual with those two missing and against a CONDO’S squad that has hot to start the season. They’ve yet to lose in a full game yet (although as mentioned they do trail the Monsters in the partially completed match) and have multiple players in the top ten in scoring, plus one (Eli The Goon) who has an unprecedented two game winners in two games. Key matchup will be in net where Casca will have to stand tall against one of the Tims. It’s a total toss-up as far as the matchup itself goes, but the under is looking mighty “joosy” as Hicks might say with two top goalies duking it out.

Goonies (-115)
Green Street Hooligans (-125)
Over 5.5 (-130)
Under 5.5 (-110)

Notes: The defending champion Goonies, fresh off a dominating victory over Cup Size, will look to dethrone this season’s first place team as they head down to Green Street to face the Hooligans. Probie’s had his team firing on all cylinders to start the season; he’s third in the league in scoring despite missing last week’s game while rookie and late round steal Jon Herman is also in the top ten on the strength of a week 3 hat trick. Cherie and Yetter had that sexy chemistry flowing last week which I pray to god lasts through Ocean City, but they’re going to need ample secondary scoring from Amitai, probably drunk Rockoff and the rest of the squad. As with the 7:25 game, the x-factor will be in net where Max proved to be capable of some truly highlight reel shit last week but will face off against Jeff “Wild Card” Green. No one knew who the hell this guy was before the season started but he is a pretty good goalie, although not quite as good at beer pong. If he can continue to play the way he has, he could prove to be the type of draft day value (along with Jon) that leads you to a championship. At the bar last week he told me that Cherie plays at the fast pace that he saw a lot of back in his hockey leagues in Canada. Tonight, he gets a chance to take down the defending champs and hopefully get laid in the process. I think he will do both.

Green Street Hooligans (-130)
Over 5.5 (-110)
Under 5.5 (-130)

Notes: In a makeup game from the rained out week two games, the Hooligans and CONDO’S will face off in the 2nd game of the night for each team. Both teams are undefeated on the season thus far but while the CONDO’S have done it with timely scoring (7 goals in week one), the Hooligans have been a surprising defensive juggernaut anchored by the powerhouse duo of Andrea & Hildawg (I hate you Ben) on defense. They’ve only allowed four goals in three games, giving them a legitimate shot to challenge the all-time record for goals allowed in a season currently held by the Fall 2018 champion Cleveland Browns. A defensive juggernaut with Probie leading the offense is a scary team to play against, but Hicks and the Condos have been great in their own right. After years of being forced to play defense, Cheeky is back to her natural position at forward and has rewarded future brother-in-law (unless Sarah changes her mind) Brian Hicks’ decision to put her up there with four points in two games. Will she be able to get by Hill and Andrea? Will she scream “that’s how we do it in the pros” if she does? Will she rip her top off in celebration like Brandi Chastain or is that just a fantasy that Caitlin had last night? I have no idea, but it’s exciting. In the meantime, I’m betting on green.

My Cup Size Is Stanley (-135)
The Bayside Tigers (-105)
Over 5.5 (-120)
Under 5.5 (-120)

Notes: The final game of the evening is the annual commissioner bowl as the two league managers battle it out to see who can cheat more and win this game (it’s usually Jenn). Both teams are in dire need of a victory; Cup Size is 1-2 and coming off what can only be termed as a “shellacking” at the hands of Cherie and the Goonies while the Tigers are searching for their first victory of the season. They’ll get Sena back today but who knows if her health is at 100% (I actually don’t think she’s played at 100% since like 2017). Charlotte remains out along with Kevin, Matt Stabel, Jacob and Maya. Tigers may use a guy sub to get to five, and it’s great to see Gabe back and trolling again, but Ariel knows him well and they’ll need some secondary scoring if they’re going to win this game. I don’t know if it’ll happen, but I hope to god it does. In the meantime, take the under and call it a day.

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