The Mighty Mensches (+2.0 Goals) (+145)
The Lavender Llamas (-2.0 Goals) (-200)
Over 6.0 (-120)
Under 6.0 (-120)
Notes: The Llamas should be rolling out a mostly full lineup for this one and despite last week’s upset loss to the Blancs, they are being heavily favored by both the sportsbook and the public.
In general you never want to be on the same side as the public and the Mensches played what were easily their three best games of the season last week in upsetting pink twice and almost beating 1st place blue. They’ll have Jeff Green back in net with Amanda and a girl sub TBD along with Maurice. Etan and James have developed some awesome chemistry throughout this season and Yaakov will be back this week giving them a strong presence of grit and freestyle rapping on the bench. I really like this Mensches squad and could not have been more proud of them last week. That said, this week is an entirely different story with Sam, Annie, Pags, Joel and what I’ve been informed is an actually sober Phelps coming in and looking to avoid the ignominy of being eliminated in the play-ins. I legitimately haven’t seen Phelps sober in several weeks, if not months, and I don’t think the Mensches will have an answer for the Lavender attack. The Chanukah oil runs out as the Llamas move on to the next round, but the fans give maroon a standing ovation anyways.
Green Street Hooligans (+2.0 Goals) (+175)
Merry Pranksters (-2.0 Goals) (-250)
Over 6.5 (-120)
Under 6.5 (-120)
Notes: These teams met once in the regular season with the Pranksters winning 6-1. I don’t see why this matchup would be any different.
As I pointed out in today’s power ranks, green’s only hope to pull a monster upset in this one rests on a) an amazing gameplan by Rich and b) an amazing game by Jacob in net. He was absolutely fantastic in their season finale last Friday, a 5-2 win over Vegas where he stood on his head for large portions of the 2nd and 3rd periods so it’s certainly within the real of possibility. But with the Pranksters rocking a mostly full squad including Manny, who was originally out but now back in as his baby’s delivery was pushed back a day (seriously), I just don’t see it. Going chalk is boring and I do expect the Hooligans to be motivated, but I don’t know what answers they can really present for the Sam/Derek/Chris line. Pranksters to win by multiple goals.
Shooting Blancs (+2.0 Goals) (+170)
Hungry Hippos 2.0 (-2.0 Goals) (-235)
Over 7.5 (-140)
Under 7.5 (EVEN)
Notes: A 7.5 line for a playoff game is quite rare but considering these teams played 16 minutes of hockey a month ago where 5 goals were scored, then another 26 minutes last week where an additional 12 goals were scored, this almost feels low. The Hippos won that game 11-6 and pretty much everyone sees that happening again.
The Blancs have a surprisingly deep team this season and should not be taken lightly here; with Brad, Simon, Jacob and Metz on D and Cara, McCauley, Mitch and Darosa at forward (plus, I suppose, Adam Herman), this is a solid squad. But I just think for whatever reason, the Hippos are a matchup nightmare for them even if I did see Jacob make one of the most insane glove saves of his career on Jack last night. Once again, chalk is boring but there’s a reason it’s chalk. Hippos to advance; Hicks to do some crazy pee cellys when he inevitably scores.
The Mighty Mensches (+3.0 Goals) (-120)
Vegas Golden Knights (-3.0 Goals) (-120)
The Lavender Llamas (+155)
Vegas Golden Knights (-210)
Over 6.0 (-120)
Under 6.0 (-120)
Notes: Two lines presented for you depending on what the actual matchup is. And…well, looks like the public is only acknowledging one of them.
If it’s the Mensches – It’s been a great season but Vegas is simply a matchup nightmare for them and they will have to give up Jeff Green and use a different goalie to boot. Meanwhile, if it’s the Llamas, as has been the case all season, I am more bullish on them than pretty much anyone else outside their locker room. They have a mostly full lineup and Phelps is what I would term “relatively sober.”
Vegas definitely won’t have Tom Fitz or Shan in with Tony D also a GTD. I think this game is veering closer to toss-up territory than you think. The keys for purple are staying out of the box and keeping Phelps away from downing sauce or ass too close to gametime. I don’t know if they’ll be able to do it, but the price isn’t too bad. That said, I fully expect the public to hammer Vegas.
Green Street Hooligans (+3.0 Goals) (+150)
Red Zeppelin (-3.0 Goals) (-230)
Merry Pranksters (+155)
Red Zeppelin (-210)
Over 6.5 (-120)
Under 6.5 (-120)
Notes: The Hooligans met Red Zeppelin earlier in the season and had to fight hard to only lose by 3 goals. Meanwhile the Pranksters beat them, although Joe wasn’t in the lineup for Red. Both teams get a nice little edge too as the Pranksters get Derek while the Zeppelin gets Carter in for his last game of the season. What does the D5 public think will happen?
Not much confidence out there in the Hooligans and surprisingly not much in the Pranksters who, at one point this season, were being called a possible championship contender. Is this a case of recency bias, looking too much at their standings position (7th) vs actual expected play, or is it Red just that good? I’m not totally sure but I do think this game (against the Pranksters I mean) will be closer than most would expect and I’m taking the Pranksters at plus money for the value.
Shooting Blancs (+2.5 Goals) (+150)
Julie’s Football Club (-2.5 Goals) (-200)
Hungry Hippos 2.0 (+1.0 Goals) (+105)
Julie’s Football Club (-1.0 Goals) (-150)
Over 7.0 (-130)
Under 7.0 (-110)
Notes: Orange just played white and shellacked them 7-1. Meanwhile they played black in their season opener and took a 3-2 decision in overtime. What do the fans have to say about this one?
Once again literally no one expects the lowest seeded team to make a run which is unfortunate but also understandable. Surprisingly, although orange was rated #2 in the power ranks, they are only being given 60% to beat the Hippos and their loaded with firepower lineup. I guess matchups do determine a lot in the playoffs and JFC’s tight defensive structure will certainly be tested by Hicks, Jack, Oberg, Satok and co here. I still think orange is too deep and too strong to lose their opening playoff game but Hicks has this new lung juice supplement that is honestly awesome and he is playing the “nobody believes in us” card because I didn’t even list an odds to appear in the championship line for them in the playoff prop bets. This game is close to a toss-up, juice must go to JFC due to standings and power rank position but anything can happen in this one. Over is a decent bet even with this seasons GAA leader AJ between the pipes for orange. Should be a barnburner.