Legally Blonde (-4.0 Goals) (-130)
My Cup Size Is Stanley (+4.0 Goals) (-110)
Over 9.5 Goals (-145)
Under 9.5 Goals (EVEN)
Notes: This is a tough line to make because this game means a ton for pink who not only have to win, but probably have to win by double digits to make up the goal differential difference between them and Glatt’s and thus have a shot at the #2 seed. Expect them to run-and-gun the entire game and play very little team defense which honestly is how Cup Size and Schvitz have played most of the season themselves. Meanwhile the game means close to zero to Cup Size except I’m sure they don’t want to give Yehuda the satisfaction of beating them again after it already happened once this season and after Jenn lost a $50 bet to me on which of these teams would finish higher in the standings. It could really go either way: if Cup Size players go hard for pride ala the 2007 Giants, they could easily keep this close and cover the spread, particularly with Chad and Emma out for pink. If black takes it super easy and stop playing defense early, 4 is really not that much to cover. Anyone betting on this game is truly the sickest of the sick. I expect to see many of you wagering on it.
Great Sexpectations (-3.0 Goals) (+300)
A$$ Fault Green (+3.0 Goals) (-600)
Over 7.0 Goals (-145)
Under 7.0 Goals (EVEN)
Notes: This game is a borderline scrimmage as green is locked into the 12 and blue is locked into the 1. Both teams have agreed to play this game with a running clock, regardless of penalties/icings/etc. With the game meaning literally nothing to either team and likely just taking on the tenor of a scrimmage, it’s almost impossible to make a line for it. I’m sure the public action will be on blue regardless but I’m tempted to not even take bets on this one, but this is a respectable sportsbook so obviously that wasn’t an option. Instead, enjoy a spread designed to discourage betting on this game. Oddsmaking at its finest.
Return Of The Clap (-300)
I’m Schvitzing (+180)
Over 5.5 Goals (-145)
Under 5.5 Goals (EVEN)
Notes: I once read a column by legendary sportswriter turned podcaster Bill Simmons where he referred to the final week of the NFL season as “Dinner Check Week.” To wit:
Let’s say two friends just finished dinner at a steakhouse. The check comes. Unless they agree to split the bill, the next three seconds will go one of four ways.
1. One friend grabs the check as the other friend says “no, no, no!” and puts up a token fight.
2. One friend grabs the check as the other friend doesn’t put up a fight.
3. Both reach for the check at the same time, fight over who’s paying it and do the dueling, “no no no no, lemme get it, no no no no no” routine.
4. Both pretend not to see it because neither wants to pay.
Each scenario comes down to one simple question: Who wanted the check more? In the first two scenarios, one friend wanted it more than the other. In the third scenario, luck usually determined the winner — where the waiter placed the check determined who grabbed it first. In the fourth scenario, someone eventually has to care or else they’ll be sitting there forever. So really, it’s about caring. Who cared more on that day?
Same goes for Week 17 in football, or as it could easily be called, Dinner Check Sunday. Just figure out the stakes for every team, weigh them and pick accordingly.
This is the million dollar question for most of these lines and for this one, the gulf is dramatic. Clap badly needs a win here to get out of the play-ins and secure a spot next week, where Ryan will (hopefully) be back, while Schvitz is locked into a play-in game tonight no matter what happens. This makes this matchup seem like an easy Clap win, until you remember the part where I mentioned that Ryan will hopefully be “back” next week, as in he is out tonight. That’s honestly the only reason this line is close with multiple GTDs on Schvitzing and only Milstein really wanting them to win this game for purple’s sake (but man, does he want them to win it bad). I have to install Clap as a reasonably sized favorite due to the aforementioned dinner check considerations, but this Schvitz team is extremely dangerous and has been a bit of a sleeping giant all season. They do have a few GTDs for this one but if they come through in time, watch out. Also this game will be played with 7 minute periods; otherwise the over/under would be like 8.5.
The MilkMob (-120)
Legally Blonde (-120)
Over 7.0 Goals (-120)
Under 7.0 Goals (-120)
Notes: Massive stakes for both teams. Assuming pink is able to get a regulation win over black, and by a bunch of goals, they’ll have a chance to do the same to MilkMob and improbably secure 2nd place. Even if they don’t, finishing top four would be a huge feather in Yehuda’s cap after last season’s disastrous performance where pink finished 10th out of 11 teams. Meanwhile, a MilkMob regulation win would mean they only have to win two playoff games next week as opposed to three if they lose this. I have this game as the lone true toss-up of the night. Also the total is only good if Geskin plays; otherwise it’s null and void. But despite being a big supporter of pink all season and giving Pete the start tonight for the greatest defensive tandem in hockey history (in the only league with tandems in hockey history), I’m taking the Mob to end the season with a win, even without Hicks and KG, and secure a 5th or 6th seed going into the playoffs.
My Cup Size Is Stanley (+115)
Return Of The Clap (-160)
Over 7.5 Goals (-120)
Under 7.5 Goals (-120)
My Cup Size Is Stanley (+120)
I’m Schvitzing (-170)
Over 9.5 Goals (-130)
Under 9.5 Goals (-110)
Notes: The only reason the Cup Size/Schvitz over/under isn’t double digits is that it’s a playoff game, all three possible teams are missing top offensive threats and the period lengths for play-in games are 11 minutes. Otherwise, I’d expect either of these matchups to be insanely high scoring. I keep metrics on how many total goals are scored (for and against) in games involving each team. Games involving Clap average 8.11 goals per game, games involving Schvitzing average 9.56 goals per game and games averaging Cup Size, the only team guaranteed to be in this matchup, average an absolutely unheard of 10.22 goals per game. Add to this that Cup Size will be missing their entire top D pair of Lucas and Ellie and I expect the goals to come fast and furious no matter which teams are involved. With black also missing Minsky and having a host of GTDs, they have to be the underdog in both scenarios but with Clap missing Ryan and Schvitzing missing Kittredge and with several GTDs, who the hell knows. It’s likely to be the most entertaining game of the night either way so get your popcorn ready. It’s going to be a movie (more specifically, a movie about beleaguered goalies and zero defense).
A$$ Fault Green (-150)
PMD/CLAP/SCHV (EVEN)
Over 6.5 Goals (-125)
Under 6.5 Goals (-115)
Notes: You may think that betting against the bottom team in the league is easy money in any league but things are rarely that easy in D5 where parity reigns supreme and last minute situations like this have been brought to the league’s attention:
The mustache moves the line at least one goal in green’s favor and honestly I really like their odds tonight. The only thing that may throw a wrinkle into it is Stern trying to go to the Yankee game but also play in this game. I’m not entirely sure how that’s going to work unless the Yanks are up multiple runs and he hits zero subway traffic with someone bringing his shit to the rink but either way, it appears that green will have a mostly full lineup. Meanwhile, their opponent is up in the air but all will have at least one loss as Ryan is out for Clap, Kittredge for Schvitz and Fitz is a GTD for purple with a mysterious injury that hasn’t prevented him from playing so far this season but apparently is putting his status for tonight up in the air. Cedric is also out for purple if they are the opponent (the most likely scenario) and those are two key pieces for them. With all that in mind, although it’s sure to raise some eyebrows, I am making the unorthodox decision to install this season’s 12th place team as the favorite in this matchup, regardless of opponent, to survive and advance to next week’s playoff week one.
The Mighty Ducks (+1.0 Goals) (+150)
Return Of The Pie Pie (-1.0 Goals) (-230)
Over 6.0 Goals (-110)
Under 6.0 Goals (-130)
Notes: The final game of the regular season is a doozy as two of last season’s final four contenders battle for playoff positioning. This is basically a playoff game for both teams and honestly has more leverage than even one single game; in some senses, its like two playoff games in one. If the Ducks lose in regulation they could finish as low as 7th place, meaning they would have to win three playoff games next week. If they win in regulation, they could finish as high as 3rd which would require only one playoff win next week. Meanwhile for orange, a regulation loss and two wins by pink could bump them down to 4th and if this loss is by 4 or more goals, they could drop as low as 5th place. That’s two playoff games next week. Meanwhile, if they get even a single point out of this game, they finish 2nd and are off next week with a direct bye to the final four. The stakes are incredibly high and god bless the schedule maker who had the foresight to make this the final game of the regular season, whoever that was. The Ducks did win when these teams met on opening night but are missing both of their top picks for tonight as Jeff Green will play for Sonj while Andrew appears to be out for the season with turf toe which, as we learned with Joe Burrow, is a significantly more gruesome injury than its rather benign name would suggest. It’s an unfortunate end to the season for a team that for much of it looked like a championship contender and honestly still might be considering their depth, speed and whatever inspires them to have a statistically abnormal OT win percentage every season. But against a fully motivated, full strength orange team that is among the league’s elite, I don’t think it’ll be enough. Orange to lock up the #2 seed and clinch their 3rd trip to the final four in 3 seasons as a franchise.